@prefix fxpcn: <https://fx-pcn.local/ontology#> .
@prefix prov: <http://www.w3.org/ns/prov#> .
@prefix skos: <http://www.w3.org/2004/02/skos/core#> .
@prefix xsd: <http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema#> .

<https://fx-pcn.local/kg/pair/GBPUSD> a fxpcn:CurrencyPair ;
    fxpcn:baseCurrency <https://fx-pcn.local/kg/currency/GBP> ;
    fxpcn:label "GBP/USD" ;
    fxpcn:quoteCurrency <https://fx-pcn.local/kg/currency/USD> .

<https://fx-pcn.local/kg/summary-run/2026-08-05/forex-network-seven-majors-w180-s30-mo90-ml7-fdr0.05-D> a prov:Activity,
        fxpcn:QualitativeSummaryRun ;
    prov:wasInformedBy <https://fx-pcn.local/kg/run/forex-network-seven-majors-w180-s30-mo90-ml7-fdr0.05-D> ;
    fxpcn:date "2026-08-05"^^xsd:date ;
    fxpcn:llmModel "ollama_chat/glm-5.2:cloud" ;
    fxpcn:mentionsPair <https://fx-pcn.local/kg/pair/AUDUSD>,
        <https://fx-pcn.local/kg/pair/NZDUSD>,
        <https://fx-pcn.local/kg/pair/USDCAD>,
        <https://fx-pcn.local/kg/pair/USDCHF>,
        <https://fx-pcn.local/kg/pair/USDJPY> ;
    fxpcn:network <https://fx-pcn.local/kg/network/forex-network-seven-majors> ;
    fxpcn:networkName "forex-network-seven-majors" ;
    fxpcn:takeawayBullet "Actively monitor the USD/JPY / USD/CAD relationship, which flipped off in July and back on in August — its instability indicates it is near the conditional-dependence threshold and could signal a shift in JPY-CAD commodity/risk linkage if it stabilizes or strengthens.",
        "Confirmation or invalidation of this read hinges on the next 1-2 snapshots: if density stays above 0.80 while mean abs partial correlation falls further below 0.17, the weak-link high-connectivity regime is deepening; if correlation strength rebounds toward the 0.20+ historical mean while density holds, the network is transitioning toward a tighter, more conventional co-movement structure that would materially change hedging assumptions.",
        "Diversification across the seven majors is currently compressed: with density near 0.86, most pairs are conditionally dependent, so traditional \"spread risk across currencies\" logic offers less structural insulation than in lower-density regimes.",
        "However, the weak mean partial correlation (0.17, bottom quartile historically) means dependencies are diffuse rather than tight — hedging ratios built on strong bilateral correlations may overstate true co-movement and should be stress-tested against the current weaker-link regime.",
        "The complete absence of directed edges suggests no pair is currently a reliable Granger-cause lead for another at the 7-day horizon; monitoring strategies relying on lead-lag signal propagation across majors are likely to produce false or stale signals right now.",
        "Watch USD/CHF / NZD/USD and USD/JPY / AUD/USD, both of which dropped in May and have not returned; their continued absence would confirm a structural decoupling of safe-haven (CHF, JPY) from commodity currencies (AUD, NZD), while reappearance would signal re-coupling under a common factor." .

<https://fx-pcn.local/kg/summary-run/2026-08-07/forex-network-seven-majors-w180-s30-mo90-ml7-fdr0.05-D> a prov:Activity,
        fxpcn:QualitativeSummaryRun ;
    prov:wasInformedBy <https://fx-pcn.local/kg/run/forex-network-seven-majors-w180-s30-mo90-ml7-fdr0.05-D> ;
    fxpcn:date "2026-08-07"^^xsd:date ;
    fxpcn:llmModel "ollama_chat/glm-5.2:cloud" ;
    fxpcn:mentionsPair <https://fx-pcn.local/kg/pair/AUDUSD>,
        <https://fx-pcn.local/kg/pair/EURUSD>,
        <https://fx-pcn.local/kg/pair/USDCAD>,
        <https://fx-pcn.local/kg/pair/USDJPY> ;
    fxpcn:network <https://fx-pcn.local/kg/network/forex-network-seven-majors> ;
    fxpcn:networkName "forex-network-seven-majors" ;
    fxpcn:takeawayBullet "Actively monitor the unstable USD/JPY / USD/CAD relationship, as its recent on-off-on pattern indicates fragility in the transmission of yield-spread and commodity-risk dynamics between the Yen and Loonie.",
        "The absence of directed edges suggests that traditional lead-lag heuristics are currently ineffective; hedging and risk frameworks should assume contemporaneous reactions to news flows rather than relying on one pair to signal moves in another.",
        "The current high-density, low-correlation regime implies that while diversification across the seven majors is structurally limited (most pairs are linked), the weak strength of these links means portfolio volatility may not be as tightly clustered as in high-correlation regimes; risk monitoring should focus on systemic macro shifts rather than isolated pair shocks.",
        "The reconnection of EUR/USD and AUD/USD in June warrants attention, as it suggests a re-coupling of risk-on/risk-off dynamics between the Euro and the Australian Dollar, potentially increasing the systemic nature of risk sentiment shifts.",
        "This read would be invalidated if mean absolute partial correlation begins to rise sharply while density remains high, which would signal a transition to a high-contagion-risk regime; conversely, the emergence of directed edges would indicate a return of identifiable lead-lag drivers requiring updated causal monitoring." .

<https://fx-pcn.local/kg/currency/AUD> a fxpcn:Currency ;
    fxpcn:label "AUD" ;
    fxpcn:region <https://fx-pcn.local/kg/region/Australia> .

<https://fx-pcn.local/kg/currency/CAD> a fxpcn:Currency ;
    fxpcn:label "CAD" ;
    fxpcn:region <https://fx-pcn.local/kg/region/Canada> .

<https://fx-pcn.local/kg/currency/CHF> a fxpcn:Currency ;
    fxpcn:label "CHF" ;
    fxpcn:region <https://fx-pcn.local/kg/region/Switzerland> .

<https://fx-pcn.local/kg/currency/EUR> a fxpcn:Currency ;
    fxpcn:institution <https://fx-pcn.local/kg/institution/EuropeanCentralBank> ;
    fxpcn:label "EUR" ;
    fxpcn:region <https://fx-pcn.local/kg/region/EuropeanUnion> .

<https://fx-pcn.local/kg/currency/GBP> a fxpcn:Currency ;
    fxpcn:institution <https://fx-pcn.local/kg/institution/BankofEngland> ;
    fxpcn:label "GBP" ;
    fxpcn:region <https://fx-pcn.local/kg/region/UnitedKingdom> .

<https://fx-pcn.local/kg/currency/JPY> a fxpcn:Currency ;
    fxpcn:institution <https://fx-pcn.local/kg/institution/BankofJapan> ;
    fxpcn:label "JPY" ;
    fxpcn:region <https://fx-pcn.local/kg/region/Japan> .

<https://fx-pcn.local/kg/currency/NZD> a fxpcn:Currency ;
    fxpcn:label "NZD" ;
    fxpcn:region <https://fx-pcn.local/kg/region/NewZealand> .

<https://fx-pcn.local/kg/institution/BankofEngland> a skos:Concept ;
    skos:prefLabel "Bank of England" .

<https://fx-pcn.local/kg/institution/BankofJapan> a skos:Concept ;
    skos:prefLabel "Bank of Japan" .

<https://fx-pcn.local/kg/institution/EuropeanCentralBank> a skos:Concept ;
    skos:prefLabel "European Central Bank" .

<https://fx-pcn.local/kg/institution/FederalReserve> a skos:Concept ;
    skos:prefLabel "Federal Reserve" .

<https://fx-pcn.local/kg/pair/EURUSD> a fxpcn:CurrencyPair ;
    fxpcn:baseCurrency <https://fx-pcn.local/kg/currency/EUR> ;
    fxpcn:label "EUR/USD" ;
    fxpcn:quoteCurrency <https://fx-pcn.local/kg/currency/USD> .

<https://fx-pcn.local/kg/pair/NZDUSD> a fxpcn:CurrencyPair ;
    fxpcn:baseCurrency <https://fx-pcn.local/kg/currency/NZD> ;
    fxpcn:label "NZD/USD" ;
    fxpcn:quoteCurrency <https://fx-pcn.local/kg/currency/USD> .

<https://fx-pcn.local/kg/pair/USDCHF> a fxpcn:CurrencyPair ;
    fxpcn:baseCurrency <https://fx-pcn.local/kg/currency/USD> ;
    fxpcn:label "USD/CHF" ;
    fxpcn:quoteCurrency <https://fx-pcn.local/kg/currency/CHF> .

<https://fx-pcn.local/kg/region/Australia> a skos:Concept ;
    skos:prefLabel "Australia" .

<https://fx-pcn.local/kg/region/Canada> a skos:Concept ;
    skos:prefLabel "Canada" .

<https://fx-pcn.local/kg/region/EuropeanUnion> a skos:Concept ;
    skos:prefLabel "European Union" .

<https://fx-pcn.local/kg/region/Japan> a skos:Concept ;
    skos:prefLabel "Japan" .

<https://fx-pcn.local/kg/region/NewZealand> a skos:Concept ;
    skos:prefLabel "New Zealand" .

<https://fx-pcn.local/kg/region/Switzerland> a skos:Concept ;
    skos:prefLabel "Switzerland" .

<https://fx-pcn.local/kg/region/UnitedKingdom> a skos:Concept ;
    skos:prefLabel "United Kingdom" .

<https://fx-pcn.local/kg/region/UnitedStates> a skos:Concept ;
    skos:prefLabel "United States" .

<https://fx-pcn.local/kg/pair/AUDUSD> a fxpcn:CurrencyPair ;
    fxpcn:baseCurrency <https://fx-pcn.local/kg/currency/AUD> ;
    fxpcn:label "AUD/USD" ;
    fxpcn:quoteCurrency <https://fx-pcn.local/kg/currency/USD> .

<https://fx-pcn.local/kg/pair/USDCAD> a fxpcn:CurrencyPair ;
    fxpcn:baseCurrency <https://fx-pcn.local/kg/currency/USD> ;
    fxpcn:label "USD/CAD" ;
    fxpcn:quoteCurrency <https://fx-pcn.local/kg/currency/CAD> .

<https://fx-pcn.local/kg/pair/USDJPY> a fxpcn:CurrencyPair ;
    fxpcn:baseCurrency <https://fx-pcn.local/kg/currency/USD> ;
    fxpcn:label "USD/JPY" ;
    fxpcn:quoteCurrency <https://fx-pcn.local/kg/currency/JPY> .

<https://fx-pcn.local/kg/currency/USD> a fxpcn:Currency ;
    fxpcn:institution <https://fx-pcn.local/kg/institution/FederalReserve> ;
    fxpcn:label "USD" ;
    fxpcn:region <https://fx-pcn.local/kg/region/UnitedStates> .